Despite almost daily reports of a housing market crash since September 2022, the data shows that the British (and Warrington) property market is doing OK.
So, letโs dive into the stats and start with the life blood of the housing market โ new properties coming on to the market.
๐ก๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐น๐, ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ,๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ด ๐จ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ.
(๐ค๐ญ = ๐๐ฎ๐ป & ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ & ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต)
Interesting when compared to 407,946 UK properties in Q1 2023 and the 7-year Q1 average (2017 to 2023) of 403,105 new properties on the market.
New properties coming onto the market are a vital bellwether of the property market.
Why? Well in 2008, the number of properties coming on the market in Q1 was double that of 2007, this meant supply (number of homes on the market) vastly outstripped demand and hence economics dictated, and house prices fell.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป t๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ต๐ผ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐.
So how do you know if we are heading for another Warrington house price crash as we did in 2008 or not, as the case maybe?
Let me share a quick and easy way to find out before anyone else.
Initially, perform a Rightmove search in Warrington and write down the number of properties for sale every week. Next, carry out the same search, yet this time include sold subject to contract properties and make a note of that. The difference between the two numbers will show the number properties sold subject to contract. The final step is to calculate the ratio between the first two numbers: i.e., whatโs available versus whatโs been sold.
If the ratio of sold property to available property rises monthly, the market is improving. If the ratio is falling, the market is slowing.
If you really wish to go deep into this; you could split the search into property type (and bedrooms) you are selling and buying e.g., detached, semi, terraced/town house or apartments. This will help you to judge demand and supply and time the market to your advantage.
๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐, ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐น๐,๐ฏ๐ฌ๐ฎ,๐ฏ๐ด๐ฎ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ (๐๐๐ฐ) ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ.
However, the devil is in the data. Comparing with previous stats, in Q1 2023, 276,482 properties sold stc whilst the 8-year Q1 average (2017 to 2024 inclusive) was 304,363.
Obviously, the medium term 8-year UK average includes Q1 2021, where 397,402 properties had sold stc and Q1 2022 when 341,888 properties sold stc. Both of those years were exceptional; however, when we compare Q1 2024 to the Q1 average of 2017/18/19/20, a more reasonable 282,488 houses were sold stc on average.
Next, I wish to look at what is selling nationally by price band.
- 35.4% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were up in the price band up to ยฃ250k, yet 42.9% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 41.0% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the ยฃ250k to ยฃ500k price band, yet only 39.6% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 13.4% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the ยฃ500k to ยฃ750k price band, yet only 10.7% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 5.1% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the ยฃ750k to ยฃ1m price band, yet only 3.7% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
- 5.1% of the properties that came on the market in Q1 2024 were in the ยฃ1m + price band, yet only 3.1% of the home sales (SSTC) were in this band.
Looking locally at the Q1 stats, starting with the number of properties in the Warrington area (WA1 to WA5) that came onto the market in Q1 2024 โฆ
๐ญ,๐ฏ๐ต๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ.
The average price of those Warrington properties coming to the market was ยฃ311,177.
The price range/band that saw the most listings was the ยฃ200k to ยฃ250k range, where 228 Warrington area properties came onto market (closely followed by the ยฃ250k to ยฃ300k range, where 220 properties came onto the market).
Now, looking at sales in Warrington โฆ
๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ค๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ.
The average price of those Warrington properties selling was ยฃ266,101.
The price range/band that saw the most sales was the ยฃ150k to ยฃ200k range, where 189 Warrington area properties were sold (again closely followed by the ยฃ200k to ยฃ250k range with 182 Warrington area properties sold subject to contract).
๐ง๐๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฟ๐๐โ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐.
Although economic turbulence remains, the UK property market is gradually moving towards pre-pandemic activity levels.
Some of you might have noticed with the national listings and sales figures mentioned above, that the lower priced range of properties are performing better than the higher priced properties. For example, just over a third (35.4%) of UK listings were ยฃ250k or below, yet that price band accounted for over 1 in 2.3 house sales (42.9%). Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, 8.9% of listings in the UK in Q1 โ24 were in the ยฃ750k to ยฃ2m price band, yet only 6.2% of the sales were in the same band. In the ยฃ2m+ price range, even though the numbers are very small, the difference is quite startling, 1.3% of listings were ยฃ2m+, but only 0.55% of sales agreed were in the same range.
So, what does this all mean for Warrington homeowners wanting to sell in this market?
Realistic pricing when you put your house on the market is everything!
๐๐ป ๐ค๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ, ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป๐ญ๐ต๐ด,๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฏ,๐ฐ๐ญ๐ณ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐.
In comparison, there were 243,602 price reductions in Q1 2023 on the 590,481 properties on the market and 119,068 price reductions in Q1 2022 on 424,796 properties on the market.
It is better to come on the market at a realistic price to start when the property is fresh to the market, than go on at a high price, lose that initial honeymoon period and then reduce it, only for some people to wonder what was wrong with the property.
Although higher mortgage rates and economic headwinds present challenges, many potential Warrington home buyers who were effectively side-lined in the fierce bidding wars of 2021/22 will find that a slower paced Warrington property market gives them time to plan a strategy for their next move as we go into the traditionally busy post-Easter house buying season.
๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐๐ผ๐ป ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต๐, ๐ถ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐, ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐ฝ f๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฏ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐.
Determining a realistic price is crucial but not easy. Many sellers look at similar properties on property portals, but those prices may be over-inflated.
Estate agents have more tools at their disposal, such as comparing sale prices for comparable properties, ยฃ/sqft and thinking about prospective purchasers in the market for the type of property under valuation.
Although getting the price right can be difficult, revising it downwards quickly is essential.
Warrington homeowners should ensure that their property looks better value for money than similar properties. If you plan to trade up, it is good sense to sell at realistic prices, as you will gain substantial savings compared to moving in the last few years.
However, if you donโt need to sell urgently, becoming a landlord could be an option โ again I can help on that if needs be. Nevertheless, Warrington homeowners-turned-landlords should consider that if property values do drift downwards in the coming 12/18 months, it may take a few more years after that to recover to those values seen last year.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐, ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ต๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ c๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐๐บ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ผ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐๐ผ๐ป ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ p๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐.
