𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗨𝗽 𝟭𝟰.𝟴% 𝗼𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗮𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹

There is a more buoyant picture for the UK property market in the first four weeks of January 2024 compared with the same first four weeks in 2023.

Every UK region has seen an increase in the number of properties selling (subject to contract) in January 24 vs January 23; the most significant rise was found in Inner London, which was up 25.14% year-on-year, followed by the South East, at 20.02%, the South West at 16.18%. Most other regions (West Midlands, Outer London, North West, Yorkshire, Ulster, East Anglia, Wales, East Midlands & North East) increased by between 12% and 15%. The smallest rise was in Scotland at 4.45%.

𝗔𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗨𝗞 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝟭𝟯.𝟵𝟱% 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗮 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗴𝗼

(592,574 for sale in January 2024 versus 519,987 for sale in January 2023)

According to Zoopla, London experienced the most significant rise in potential buyer interest, with a 21% uptick in new buyer inquiries in the capital during the initial three weeks of January compared to last year. This surge was the highest recorded across all UK regions, significantly surpassing the national average increase of 12%.

𝗡𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 (𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘀) 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟰.𝟴%

(55,459 net UK home sales to January 28th 2024, compared to 48,325 net UK home sales to January 28th 2023)

Growing optimism is evident among prospective buyers and sellers as mortgage interest rates, which saw a significant rise in 2023, have started to fall in the last month or so. By the end of December, inflation had fallen to 4%, down sharply from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 and considerably lower than the Bank of England’s anticipated 4.6%. Additionally, the average mortgage rates have dipped to their lowest point since early June, with some banks & building societies reducing mortgage rates to below 4% (for those with large deposits).

Even with this upswing in property market activities, price levels are likely to remain stable, and the market will continue to favour buyers due to ongoing mortgage affordability issues and the still relatively high-interest rates.

The reduction in mortgage rates has undoubtedly rejuvenated buyer interest and transactions, particularly after a slowdown in the latter half of 2023, when many prospective movers paused their plans. This resurgence is expected to help increase the number of properties sold, which, at one million, were at an 11-year low in 2023.

However, I cannot see this trend leading to a significant increase in house prices in 2024 since the market remains finely balanced with a medium-term drift towards a more balanced market for Q2 in 2024 (compared to 2021, when it was a sellers’ market). Sellers eager to move in 2024 might find encouragement in these initial signs of increased activity. Still, the buyer’s focus on value means that any undue optimism on the part of sellers could hold back the current property market recovery.

There are also warnings that the uncertainties often associated with a general election year inhibit the property market, as buyers and sellers become more cautious in their decisions in the lead up to voting at the polls.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁

So, what sort of market are we in?

The measurement of whether it’s a buyers’, balanced or sellers’ market is based on the proportion of properties marked as “Sold STC” and “Under Offer” compared with the total number of properties on the market, e.g., if there are 45 properties sold stc and 100 properties available/for sale, then 45 as a percentage of 100 is 45%.

This isn’t just a numbers game; it’s a gauge of market sentiment:

• Extreme Buyers’ Market (0%-20%)
• Buyers’ Market (21%-29%)
• Balanced Market (30%-40%)
• Sellers’ Market (41%-49%)
• Hot Sellers’ Market (50%-59%)
• Extreme Sellers’ Market (60%+)

The weight of these brackets can’t be overstated. They directly impact everything from listing prices to negotiation leverage.

𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗻𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘁

To calculate where Warrington’s property market stands now, let’s incorporate our most recent findings for January 2024. The numbers and statistics have been taken from the website ‘The Advisory’, which has calculated the market state stats for many years. I am sharing them from the summer of 2018 to January 2024.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 t𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 2𝟬𝟭𝟴?

Looking at each of the Warrington postcode districts, each tells its own story…

The average of all the Warrington postcode districts combined was quite clearly an extreme sellers’ market in the summer of 2021 at 79%. In 2023, the Warrington property market changed, and it was hovering in the late 40%, a sellers’ market (albeit a weaker sellers’ market than the summer of 2021). In January 2024, it slipped into a balanced market.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 f𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻‘𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁

This new data prompts me to take stock and ponder.

For Warrington home sellers: We are transitioning into a market where sellers must be more strategic, flexible, and patient. It would help if you braced yourself to expect your home to be on the market for longer with an extended marketing period.

Realistic pricing is even more vital than ever.

In 2022, for 73.2% of Warrington properties that came onto the market, the owner moved (i.e., exchanged and completed) instead of withdrawing off the market, unsold. In 2023, that figure had reduced to 58.7%, (interesting, when compared with the national picture when it was 65.33% in 2022 and 52.86% in 2023).

For Warrington home buyers: What are the challenges and opportunities? Some homes will still have bidding wars, yet you will have the luxury of choice and time with others.

External influences, from global economic trends, inflation and interest rate repercussions could all cast shadows on the Warrington property market. The pre-election Budget will no doubt affect the property market as will everything going on ice in the three or four weeks up to the election itself.

𝗗𝗲𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗿: 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲

Given the property market’s temperature, here are more granular insights:

Sellers: I’ve already mentioned, pricing is absolutely key to finding the right buyer. Also, the marketing to make your home stand out is vital – like video/virtual tours, specialised social media campaigns or interactive property listings—could make a difference in a cooling market.

Buyers: Again, there is more than one market (look at the differences between the Warrington postcode districts above). The competition will heat up if you are looking for the type of property everyone wants. Having your mortgage pre-approval in place will give you an advantage over other buyers. Also, it is worth being open to widening your search radius to spot bargains others could miss. On the other hand, Warrington home buyers can exert more power in negotiations in a less competitive market, from offer price to extras (e.g. carpets or fixtures and fittings). Don’t forget –

𝟴𝟭% 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀. 𝗦𝗼, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀’ 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴

Final thoughts – as we enter the second month of 2024, the Warrington property market offers both challenges and opportunities for Warrington’s home buyers and sellers. Understanding the market nuances is vital if you are a Warrington first-time buyer, an existing homeowner looking to move, a seasoned property buy-to-let investor, or someone looking to relocate.

Stay adaptable, stay informed and remember that, as always, your home-moving story is as much about the journey as the destination.

What are your thoughts on Warrington’s evolving property scene? Do you anticipate any other trends or shifts in the Warrington property market? What are your local insights and experiences?

Warrington Estate and Letting Agents | Belvoir Warrington